12 House Races Shift Toward Democrats Amid Midterm Uncertainty
Cook Political Report shifts 12 House races toward Democrats as midterms loom, signaling a potential shift in congressional control.
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Cook Political Report has shifted 12 additional House races toward Democrats, raising concerns for Republicans as midterm election expectations remain bleak. The latest update, released Friday, indicates a growing trend in favor of the Democratic Party, with several key districts now leaning Democratic or showing increased competitiveness.
Key Races and Shifts
Eight Republican-held seats have moved toward Democrats, including the districts of Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick and Indiana Rep. Victoria Spartz. According to Cook Political Report, these shifts could potentially give Democrats up to 240 seats in the House if they flip between 12 and 25 races.
Previously, the elections forecaster had shifted nineteen races toward Democrats on October 23, including four Republican-held seats.
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter issued an update to its House ratings, moving 12 seats toward Democrats: https://t.co/pu7yKW4ERC https://t.co/cgVeQ081Lc
Democratic Florida Rep. Darren Soto’s seat in Florida’s ninth district shifted from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.” Despite a redistricting effort in May that gave Republicans an advantage, polling shows Soto is tied with Republican candidate Dan Green. Meanwhile, in Ohio’s ninth district, which was redrawn in October 2025 to be more Republican, Cook shifted the race from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democratic.” Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur is fighting to defend her seat against Republican nominee Derek Merrin.
Spartz’s district, which Trump won by 17 points in 2024, shifted from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.” The House Majority PAC, the Democrats’ top super PAC, spent $380,000 on TV ads against Spartz, signaling the district as a competitive race.
Several open seats also shifted, including Florida’s seventh district and South Carolina’s first district, which moved from leaning Republican to a toss-up. Meanwhile, seats in North Carolina’s fifth and ninth districts, New Jersey’s second district, and Washington’s fifth district shifted from “Solidly Republican” to “Likely Republican.”
Republican Spending Cuts and Strategic Shifts
Republicans have slashed spending in some districts they hoped to flip, including Texas’ 28th district, where Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar is up for reelection. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House super PAC, canceled $3 million in planned ad spending against Cuellar, despite his 20-point lead in polls.
The fund also cut $6 million in ads against Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz in Florida’s 25th district, which was redistricted in May to help Republicans. The No Going Back PAC, backed by MAGA Inc., planned to spend $6.3 million in the district after the Congressional Leadership Fund backed out.
Source: Daily Caller
