Tanker Data Shows Oil Flow Through Hormuz at 23% Below Pre-War Levels
Energy Secretary Chris Wright claims oil through Hormuz is near prewar levels, but tracking data shows significant declines.
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Tanker-tracking data reveals a stark discrepancy between the U.S. Energy Secretary’s claims and the actual flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. According to recent data, crude oil crossing the strait averaged about 10.3 million barrels per day in the week ended October 3, which is roughly 23 percent below Kpler’s prewar figure of 13.5 million barrels per day. This data contradicts Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s assertion that oil through the strait had returned to 80 to 90 percent of its prewar level, or 13 million to 14 million barrels per day.
Energy Secretary’s Claims vs. Tracking Data
In a video address to an international energy conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Wright stated that oil movement through the strait had largely recovered, with shipments of refined fuels like diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline still at 25 to 35 percent of prewar levels. However, independent tracking firms like Kpler and Windward provide a different picture. Kpler reported that crude oil leaving the Gulf region from September 1 to September 28 reached 16.5 million barrels per day, matching the prewar average without Iran, which is under a U.S. blockade. Windward, on the other hand, estimated the flow at 9 million to 10 million barrels per day, compared to 14.5 million before the war.
Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners, noted that while energy statistics can be imprecise and subject to revision, the data from tracking firms suggests that the secretary’s figures may be overly optimistic. Book also highlighted that the recovery of crude oil through the strait may be outpacing the recovery of refined products, as refineries are still operating at lower capacities.
Impact of Attacks and Shipping Delays
The energy secretary acknowledged that the crude supply issue was mostly under control but not yet fully resolved. He cited factors such as costlier shipping, longer voyages, and Iranian attacks on ships as contributing to the slower return of fuel shipments from the Gulf. In August, Wright had previously stated that the seven-day average for oil leaving the strait was “almost 9 million barrels per day,” with an additional 5 million to 7 million barrels per day being transported via pipelines and export facilities, totaling about 15 million barrels per day.
Nearly 20 commercial ships, mostly tankers, were attacked in the Hormuz, Persian Gulf, or off Oman in the month before October 6, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center, a group of U.S.-allied militaries. The U.S. military has been protecting tankers using a southern route near Oman’s coast, the outlet reported. These attacks have disrupted the flow of oil and contributed to the slower recovery of shipments.
Regional Pipeline Networks and Crude Flow
Matthew McManus, a senior fellow at the National Center for Energy Analytics and a former State Department official, noted that redundant pipelines in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and to a lesser extent Iraq have helped move substantial volumes of crude oil to market. These pipelines now carry about 40 percent of the crude around the strait, up from 17 percent before the war. Despite this, about 60 percent of the crude, or 9.9 million barrels per day, still crossed Hormuz in September, mostly on shuttle tankers that transfer their cargo to other ships in the Gulf of Oman.
McManus also emphasized that the flow of crude through the strait and via pipelines fluctuates week to week, but historically, it has aligned with the ranges provided by Kpler and the Department of Energy. Kpler’s data shows that the combined flow through the strait and pipelines has tracked with these estimates, indicating a degree of consistency despite the discrepancies in reported levels.
Refined Fuel Recovery and Market Impacts
Book pointed out that the recovery of crude oil through the strait may be outpacing that of refined products due to the slower processing in refineries. This imbalance has led to a situation where more crude is being exported rather than refined. The Middle East supplied about 15 percent of global diesel exports and 8 percent of global gasoline exports in 2025, according to OPEC data. However, diesel prices have surged, averaging $6.27 a gallon nationally on Monday, up from $3.67 a year earlier, according to the American Automobile Association.
Global Implications and Future Outlook
The ongoing disruptions in the Gulf have broader implications for global oil markets. The U.S. government has been working to stabilize the flow of crude and refined fuels, but the situation remains volatile. The energy secretary’s statements have been met with skepticism from industry analysts and tracking firms, who argue that the data is more accurate and reflects the current reality.
As the situation continues to evolve, the interplay between political statements, tracking data, and market dynamics will remain crucial in understanding the true state of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. The next steps will likely involve further assessments of the impact of attacks, the role of regional pipelines, and the potential for increased refining capacity to meet global demand.
Source: Daily Caller
