Talarico’s Polls Suggest Tighter Texas Senate Race Than Admitted
Democrat James Talarico’s internal polls show a tighter race against Ken Paxton, raising concerns about rural voter support.
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Democrat Senate candidate James Talarico’s private polling suggests his race against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is tighter than the public surveys indicate, according to a recent report. While high-profile polls like the New York Times/Siena University and CNN/SSRS surveys have shown Talarico with a 6-point lead, other recent surveys show him either tied with Paxton or holding a 2-point lead within the margin of error. Internal polling from Talarico’s campaign aligns more closely with these tighter results, according to people close to the campaign.
Rural Conservative Voters Concern
However, these internal polls may not fully capture the sentiments of rural conservative voters who support former President Donald Trump, sources close to the campaign said. Luke Warford, chairman of the Travis County Democratic Party, stated that Talarico has at most a 50 percent chance of winning, calling even a coin-flip outcome phenomenal for a Texas Democrat.
Key Demographics and Challenges
Paxton’s strongest support comes from rural voters, white evangelical Christians, and Texans aged 65 and older. Talarico’s campaign is worried these groups may not be fully represented in internal polls. The race also runs through Latino communities, where Talarico needs significant turnout. However, canvassers in San Antonio and El Paso reported encountering strong loyalty to Trump and a general aversion to Talarico, particularly among Latino men.
Rebranding Efforts and Financials
Talarico, a former middle-school teacher, has been working to reframe earlier comments he now calls “cringey,” including remarks about God being “nonbinary” and the existence of six biological sexes, which have been used in opponents’ attack ads. Despite these efforts, campaign insiders acknowledge that enough Trump supporters remain in Texas to potentially sway the outcome in Paxton’s favor if they turn out.
The race, the most expensive non-presidential contest on record with over $500 million in combined spending, has also seen significant financial backing from Elon Musk, who funneled $158 million to groups supporting Paxton. Texans will vote in the race on Tuesday.
Source: Breitbart
