Iowa Senate Race Remains Closely Divided, Polls Show Tight Contest

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Iowa’s Senate race between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek remains closely contested, with recent polls showing a narrow lead for Hinson. A Quantus Insights poll conducted September 28–29, 2026, among 714 likely voters, revealed Hinson with 47.1% support, slightly ahead of Turek’s 45.8%, a difference of just 1.3%. Libertarian Thomas Laehn received 1.7% support, while undecided voters made up 5.4% of the total, enough to sway the race either way.

Key Demographic Trends

The poll highlights significant demographic divides. Turek benefits from a 17-point advantage among independent voters, while Hinson holds a 10-point edge among men. However, Turek leads among women by 12 points. The youngest voters, aged 18-29, overwhelmingly support Turek by 21 points. The 30-44 age group is evenly split, while Hinson leads among those 45-68 and slightly among those 65 and older.

Political Stances and Campaign Focus

Hinson has focused her campaign on border security, emphasizing enforcement of immigration laws and deportation of ‘dangerous criminal illegal immigrants.’ In contrast, Turek has a history of supporting taxpayer-funded welfare for illegal immigrants, despite efforts to distance himself from that record. The race remains tightly contested, with Quantus Insights noting, ‘Turek’s strength among women and independents offsets Hinson’s rural advantage, leaving Iowa’s Senate race closely divided.’

Recent Polling Trends

These findings align with an Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Iowa survey from September, which showed Hinson leading Turek by five percentage points. Hinson’s support increased from 48% in August to 50% in September, reflecting a two-point increase over the month. The RealClearPolling average of polls indicates Turek is ahead by less than half a percentage point, underscoring the tightness of the race.

Source: Breitbart

Written by

Connor Davis