Americans' Job Loss Fears Drop, New York Fed Survey Shows

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Americans have grown more confident about retaining their jobs and finding new work in September, according to a recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The survey, released on Wednesday, reveals a decline in the perceived probability of losing a job over the next 12 months, reaching 13.5 percent, the lowest level since December 2024.

Improved Job Market Outlook

Consumers also reported better prospects of finding another job and a greater likelihood of leaving their current positions voluntarily. The average perceived probability of finding work within three months after losing a job increased to 46.1 percent, moving above its trailing 12-month average. The expected probability of quitting voluntarily rose to 19.9 percent from 19.5 percent.

Demographic Trends in Job Confidence

Declining job-loss expectations were driven by respondents between ages 40 and 60 and those with annual household incomes above $100,000. The increase in expected quits was driven by those without a bachelor’s degree and respondents above age 40.

Inflation and Debt Expectations

Consumers also assigned a lower probability to an increase in the national unemployment rate over the coming year, with that measure declining to 43.9 percent from 44.4 percent. Households’ expectations for income and spending strengthened alongside the improving employment outlook.

Median expected household income growth increased to 3.1 percent, its highest reading since February 2025. Expected spending growth rose to 5.5 percent, the highest since May 2023, with increases across age and education groups.

Debt and Inflation Outlook

The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months fell to 12.2 percent from 13.2 percent, dropping below its trailing average. Inflation expectations increased at shorter horizons, with consumers expecting prices to rise 3.9 percent over the next year, up from 3.6 percent in August and the highest reading since May 2023.

Financial Assessments Remain Concerned

Despite the improvement in employment and payment expectations, households’ assessments of their finances deteriorated. Larger shares reported being worse off than a year earlier and expected their financial situation to worsen over the coming year—a result likely tied to recent experience with persistent inflation and rising inflation expectations.

The survey was conducted from September 1 through September 30 among a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads.

Source: Breitbart