Cook Report Shifts 19 House Races to Democrats
Election forecaster Cook shifts 19 House races to Democrats, reshaping midterms outlook.
3 min read
A major election forecaster shifted 19 House races in the Democrats’ favor on Friday, significantly altering the midterms outlook. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report adjusted several races, moving them from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up” and from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.” Additionally, several “Toss Up” races in Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia, and Wisconsin were shifted to “Lean Democratic.”
Democrats Now Favored to Win 220 Seats
According to the Cook Political Report, Democrats are now favored to win 220 seats, while Republicans are favored in 198 seats, with the remaining 17 races remaining toss-ups.
Today, The Cook Political Report is moving 19 more House races, all in Democrats’ direction. Six districts are moving from the Toss Up column to Lean Democrat. Two more open seats are moving from Lean Republican to Toss Up. Read more from @ercovey: https://t.co/Dd0K4TFaXB
Republican Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert’s seat, which President Donald Trump carried by 18 percentage points in 2024, shifted from “Solid Republican” to “Lean Republican.” Similarly, Republican Arizona Rep. Eli Crane’s seat, which Trump won by 15 points, shifted from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.” Boebert faces a competitive reelection bid against Democratic Colorado congressional candidate Eileen Laubacher in Colorado’s heavily Republican Fourth District, where Boebert holds a 51% negative approval rating.
Toss up races in Arizona’s Sixth District and Texas’ 34th District shifted to “Lean Democratic.” Those seats are held by Republican Arizona Rep. Juan Ciscomani and Democratic Texas Rep. Vicente Gonzalez Jr. Republican Virginia Rep. Jen Kiggans’ race also leans Democratic.
The seats of Republican Reps. Gabe Evans of Colorado and Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin are also leaning Democratic. The race to oust Democratic Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar in Texas’ 28th district shifted to “Likely Democratic.” The Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House super PAC, canceled approximately $3 million in planned advertisement spending against Cuellar while the incumbent congressman held a 20-point lead in the polls.
Republicans redrew Cuellar’s district in their 2025 round of redistricting to make it more favorable to Republicans. Trump won the redrawn district by ten percentage points in the 2024 election.
Two races in California’s 13th and 21st districts shifted to “Solid Democratic” and “Likely Democratic.” Kentucky’s Sixth District and Texas’ 35th District — two open seats — leaned toward Republicans, but were considered toss-ups as of Friday.
Republicans redrew Texas’ 35th district in August to no longer include Austin or blue areas around the capital city. Despite the redistricting efforts, the race is considered a toss-up between Republican Texas congressional candidate Carlos De La Cruz and Democratic Texas congressional candidate Johnny Garcia.
The GOP-linked Congressional Leadership Fund slashed $6 million in planned advertising to oppose Democratic Florida Rep. Jared Moskowitz in Florida’s 25th District, who is running for a third term in Congress against former Republican Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer. The super PAC is redirecting $9 million to six Republican-held seats, including Kiggans’ and Ciscomani’s seats.
Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the spring unveiled a redrawn congressional map intended to help Republicans gain four seats in the Sunshine State, including Moskowitz’s district. MAGA Inc., a Trump-aligned PAC, poured $25 million into House races Thursday, including Florida’s 25th District.
Source: Daily Caller
