Paxton Leads Talarico in Texas Senate Poll
Republican Ken Paxton leads Democrat James Talarico in a new Texas Senate poll, with a narrow margin in key demographics.
2 min read
Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton leads Democrat James Talarico in a new Texas Senate poll, according to a recent survey released on Tuesday. Paxton holds a narrow advantage of 47.2 percent to 46.7 percent, marking the most expensive contest of the 2026 midterm cycle.
Republican Strength and Democratic Independence
The survey, conducted by Quantus Insights, highlights Paxton’s lead among older and rural voters, while Talarico gains ground with independent voters, who favor him by 15 points (52 percent to 37 percent). However, Paxton’s growing support among Republican voters, who dominate the state, keeps him in a strong position.
Paxton’s Strongest Demographic
Paxton maintains a significant lead among voters aged 65 and older, with 56 percent support compared to Talarico’s 39 percent. He also leads the 45–64 age group by 49 percent to 45 percent. Talarico, however, holds the edge among younger voters, with 62 percent support among those under 30, though these demographics are typically less likely to vote in midterms.
Perceived Fit with Texas Voters
The poll also notes Paxton’s stronger ‘perceived fit’ with Texas voters, with 48.6 percent believing he aligns with them, compared to Talarico’s 45.5 percent. A significant portion (48.3 percent) of voters believe Talarico does not align with Texas.
Massive Spending Against Talarico
Republican-aligned groups have launched an unprecedented wave of spending to support Paxton and keep Talarico out of office. On October 1, Axios reported that the Senate Leadership Fund-aligned Texas PAC spent $131 million in September, with additional millions expected in October. Elon Musk has reportedly contributed $276 million to Republican causes through various entities.
Unexplained Absence and Campaign Impact
Talarico’s recent unexplained absence from the campaign trail, attributed to the flu, has raised concerns. His campaign went dark for two weeks, and he re-emerged only recently at a concert with Kacey Musgraves, a left-wing country singer. The lack of public engagement has likely affected his campaign momentum.
Early Voting Begins
Texas will begin early in-person voting on Monday, October 19, as the race heats up with both candidates vying for the Senate seat.
Source: Breitbart
