Crowley Leads Tiffany by 3, But Polls Show Tight Race
Wisconsin primary race tightens as Marquette Law School poll shows narrow lead for Crowley over Tiffany.
2 min read
David Crowley leads Tom Tiffany 49% to 46% in the latest Marquette Law School poll, but the data reveals a much closer contest than the numbers suggest. With five percent of voters still undecided and the three-point gap falling within the likely-voter margin of error of ±4.8 points, the race remains highly competitive.
Polling Trends and Likely Voters
The September survey interviewed 843 Wisconsin voters from September 16 through September 23, with 692 classified as likely voters. Compared to August’s poll, where Crowley was at 49% and Tiffany at 44%, Crowley’s support has remained stable, while Tiffany has gained two points. This shift highlights the fluidity of the race and the potential for late-deciding voters to sway the outcome.
Partisan Distribution and Methodology
Marquette’s definition of ‘likely voter’ is crucial to understanding the poll. The survey includes only registered voters who are certain to vote, which is a stricter standard than simply claiming to be ‘very likely’ to vote. This method ensures more accurate representation, though it also means certain demographics may be underrepresented. The August sample was evenly balanced across parties, with 36% Republican, 32% Democratic, and 32% independent, adjusting to 46% Republican, 42% Democratic, and 13% independent when partisan-leaning independents were reassigned.
Crowley’s Recent Performance and Challenges
Crowley’s statewide recognition has improved, but his favorable rating has dropped from 33% in August to 31%, while his unfavorable rating has risen to 44%. Meanwhile, Tiffany holds a 39% favorable rating and 45% unfavorable rating, resulting in a net favorability of minus 13 for Crowley. This indicates that both candidates are struggling to build broad support.
Historical Context and Late-Deciding Voters
The race has tightened over time, with Crowley leading by three to five points in previous polls. The recent data suggests a pattern of narrowing gaps, underscoring the importance of late-deciding voters. Marquette’s own Democratic primary polling in July showed how quickly the race could shift, with Crowley winning the primary despite initial polling that didn’t reflect his eventual success.
Broader Implications
As the 2024 presidential race approaches, the tightness of this Wisconsin primary serves as a reminder of the volatility of polling and the unpredictability of late-deciding voters. The race remains exactly as the data suggests: very close.
Source: PJ Media
