Jewish Voters Shift Toward GOP in New York
CNN analyst warns New York Democrats face sharp decline in Jewish voter support ahead of elections.
2 min read
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten warned that Jewish voters in New York are shifting significantly toward the Republican Party, citing a dramatic drop in Democratic support. Enten noted that Jewish voter margins for Democrats have fallen by more than 35 points since 2022, signaling a major shift in the state’s political landscape.
Decline in Democratic Lead
Enten highlighted that in the governor’s race, the current Democratic margin among Jewish voters stands at 13 points, down from 51 points in 2022 and 55 points in 2018. He called this a “swing” of 38 points toward the GOP, emphasizing the growing influence of Jewish voters in shaping the election outcomes.
Enten also pointed to the U.S. House generic ballot, where the Democratic lead among Jewish voters has narrowed from 49 points in 2022 to 13 points this year. He remarked that “their lead is absolutely tumbled into the Hudson River among Jewish voters,” a metaphor underscoring the significant decline in Democratic support.
Mayor’s Influence on Voter Shift
When asked about the mayor’s role, Enten focused on Democratic Socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani, whose positions on Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are seen as misaligned with many Jewish New Yorkers. Enten noted that Mamdani’s net favorability among Jewish voters is minus 23, roughly 31 points below his standing with the overall New York electorate.
A September Siena University poll confirmed this trend, showing Republican Bruce Blakeman leading Governor Kathy Hochul 46% to 43% among Jewish voters, even as Hochul led by nine points statewide. Jewish voters also favored Blakeman over Hochul on addressing “undocumented immigrants,” with 48% to 43% support.
Implications for Congressional Race
Enten also highlighted the 17th Congressional District, currently held by Republican Rep. Mike Lawler. The prediction market Kalshi gives Lawler a 39% chance of holding the heavily Jewish district, a figure that could rise if Jewish voters break as the polls suggest. Enten concluded that “they may just save Mike Lawler’s seat in Congress for him,” indicating the potential impact of the shifting voter base.
Source: Breitbart
