Texas Senate Race Tightens as Paxton and Talarico Tie
Paxton and Talarico are tied in a pivotal Texas Senate race, with shifting demographics and key voter blocs shaping the outcome.
2 min read
Texans are facing a pivotal moment in their state’s political landscape as Senator John Cornyn (R-Texas) prepares to leave the Senate, setting the stage for a high-stakes Senate race. A new Fox News survey reveals that Ken Paxton (R-Texas) and James Talarico (D-Texas) are locked in a dead heat, both sitting at 49% among likely voters.
Shift in Voter Support
The race has tightened significantly since Talarico held a 2-point lead among likely voters last month (51%–49%). This shift comes as Paxton consolidates support among key conservative groups, including rural voters, suburban women, and primary voters who initially backed Cornyn.
Although Paxton is trailing his 2024 margins, he has ticked up slightly with both men and women (+1 each) since September, whereas Talarico experienced a slight dip (-1 and -2, respectively). Talarico holds commanding leads among Black voters (+65), urban voters (+29), voters under 30 (+28), and college-educated women (+23). Paxton’s base remains anchored by White evangelical Christians (+52), non-college-educated White men (+32), rural voters (+21), and voters 65 and older (+18).
Hispanic Voters Shift Toward Talarico
The poll highlights a dramatic shift among Hispanic voters. After supporting Joe Biden by 25 points in 2020 and narrowly backing President Donald Trump in 2024, this pivotal bloc now favors Talarico by 30 points (64%-34%) and prefers Democratic control of the U.S. Senate by 29 points.
Overall, Texans favor Republicans for Senate control by 4 points (51% to 47%), up from a 1-point margin in September. Talarico is also benefiting from stronger party loyalty as 98% of Democrats back him, compared to 90% of Republicans supporting Paxton — with nearly 3 in 10 non-MAGA Republicans crossing over.
Public Perception and Concerns
Talarico remains slightly in positive territory with a net +1 rating (49% favorable, 48% unfavorable), whereas Paxton is deep in the red at -17 (41% favorable, 58% unfavorable). However, among “double haters” — voters who hold negative views of both candidates — Paxton commands a massive 50-point advantage.
Ultimately, concerns about the candidates are fairly balanced. 53% of voters worry Talarico’s views are too far-left, while 50% fear Paxton is too closely aligned with Trump. The intensity of these concerns is virtually identical, with 36% extremely concerned about Talarico and 37% saying the same about Paxton.
Source: OANN
